The Mythical Off-Market

October 10, 2025

Wow – 10-34% of these high-end markets happen off-market!  That is quite a lot!

Is the Off-Market For the UHNWIs only?

Some assume that Ultra-High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) are the ones shunning the public market; that the elites get access to this first class experience while the common folk fly economy in the public market.  How true is this?  In Palo Alto first:

In the chart above of all 425 Palo Alto transactions between Aug 1, 2024 and August 1, 2025, as recorded by Santa Clara county, the dark blue lines are the 44 transactions that were not on the MLS (we’ll discuss the exact methodology later).

Is there a concentration of dark blue lines at the high end?  A little bit, yes.  The most expensive off-market was actually our listing!  But there is an even larger cluster at the low end, and some scattered throughout. 

In Palo Alto, it is not true that the off-market is the domain of the elites.  What about Atherton?

In Atherton, 15 of 92 transactions were off-market.  The off-markets are more clustered at the top-end.  Note also that Atherton has a quarter the number of transactions as Palo Alto, and the high-end goes much higher.  How about Woodside?

In Woodside, fully 12 of the 55 transactions were off-market, including the top three.  Again we see fairly even distribution, but with a distinct clustering at the top.  If you want the finest homes Woodside has to offer, you really should be aware of the off-market.

How Do You Get This Data?

It’s actually pretty hard to create these charts. The analyst has to compare two data sets: (county recording data and MLS data) and note the differences, but this is not easy.  The two data sources have different labels and different conventions (county data is often free unstructured text fields, which takes work to process). If a property transacts twice in the same period, the county only shows the most recent one, while the MLS shows both.  If a property is noted in “agent private remarks”’ on the MLS as “for comp purposes only”, then it is in the MLS, but actually transacted off-market.  There are data entry errors that need to be adjusted.  Sometimes Realtors market a Redwood City property as Woodside (!) because it sounds better, which messes up the count.  There are more gotchas, but in summary, your analyst needs to know the area well to be accurate, and want to do the painstakingly manual work of de-tangling the data.  We initially wanted to do other cities but got way too tired!

What Actually IS the “Off-Market”?

The majority of houses in Silicon Valley are marketed via a MLS, which is an agent-only cooperative database of essential details like price, square footage, photography, and more.  When Realtors have a new house to sell, we input the relevant data and media assets into the MLS, and “launch” it, which usually includes syndication of some of the information to third party platforms like Zillow, Redfin, and Homes.com.

Being “off-market” strictly means that a house in not in the MLS at all, but in a looser sense means that the info is not syndicated to the wider internet.  For example, agents sometimes put a house that is being prepped in a status called “Members Only Do Not Show”, which alerts other agents that a listing is coming soon.  “Members Only Show” is another status that is visible to agents but does not syndicate outside the MLS. Recently, one brokerage (Compass) has been advocating sellers to launch in such a way that Compass buyer agents get to know about the listing before non-Compass agents (“Compass Private Exclusive”).  This violates an agent’s fiduciary duty to the Seller, in the opinion of many Realtors.

Importantly, being off-market is not the same as limiting access to a home; many high-end homes are listed on the MLS but have access restrictions (such as “by appointment only”), never have open houses, or demand to see potential buyer’s proof of funds before showing.

What Are the Advantages to a Seller of Being Off-Market?

As a seller, the advantages to not being publicly marketed can include:

·      Convenience: You might avoid the disruption of the moveout/staging/photography prep process.

·      Privacy: You don’t have to have photos of your home visible to a wide audience.

·      Ego: Without appearing to try too hard, you can get people chasing you.

What Are the Advantages to a Buyer of Being Off-Market?

Benefits to Buyers include:

·      Early Access: Because knowledge of the off-market home is limited, you can potentially act before anyone else.

·      Dignity: You typically have more time to consider the property, and the Listing Agent will have a harder time putting pressure on you to make a quick decision.

What are the Disadvantages of Being Off-Market?

Off-market listings have their purpose, but there are also several downsides to consider:

·      Uncertainty: Sellers are getting significantly less exposure, which means fewer offers and a nagging feeling that you never know what the market would have paid.  Did you get the best price?  You will never know.

·      Slowness: The process is likely to be slower.  Whispering is slower than the Internet.

·      Muted Launch Impact: If a house is marketed for some time as an off-market, then eventually comes to market (this is not uncommon), the best agents in the area will have already seen it.  The psychology of urgency is valuable, and hard to match a regular listing launch.

·      Price: Buyers are expected to pay a premium to the fair market price (often 10%) to compensate the Seller for foregoing the knowledge of what the public market would have paid.  Buyers are often surprised to hear this, or don’t believe it, but it is virtually impossible to lowball an off-market.

What Am I Giving Up by Selling Off-Market?

The reason Realtors advocate for the “prep-stage-market” process to launch a house is that it is proven to maximize Seller profit.  Realtors generally prefer the seller to move out, the house to be prepped with ROI-positive upgrades, to be professionally staged, to conduct a beautiful and wide-reaching marketing program, and for other Agents to be able to show the property easily. 

Off-market sales cut into this ideal scenario.  For most Sellers, most of the time, being on-market will strongly work out to your advantage.

How Do I Find The Off-Market?

As a Seller, it is easy:  just tell your Agent to sell the property with a reduced marketing plan.  Voila!  You are in the Off-Market.

As a Buyer, sometimes you will hear that your friend or neighbor is planning to sell, and know this before anyone else.  But typically, you want a productive local Realtor on your side.  Most of the good ones talk to each other very fluidly, and know about what is coming, secret, or possible.  At the Young Platinum Group, we spend up to eight hours each week touring all the new inventory in our area, quizzing our peers about what they have coming, and building excitement for what we have coming. 

Do You Sell Off-Markets?

Yes!  In our past 50 transactions, for example, six were off-market (four representing Sellers, two representing buyers). 

On the sell-side, one was an unsolicited offer we received when the house was not intended to be sold.  Another was a house we were prepping, and an attentive local Realtor dug around to determine it was us doing the prep work, and made a high, clean, and irresistible offer.  A third was a house that we built, where we engineered a bidding war before we were able to launch the house.  A fourth was a house we were helping a client to rent, and relentless networking about this “coming soon” generated an attractive offer.

On the buy-side, one off-market sale was a case where we were scouring a neighborhood for suitable candidates, networked extensively, discovered a “coming soon”, and made a strong offer.  In another case, we bought a house during the holiday break with no competition because the Seller and Listing Agent decided to take it off market to “rest days-on-market”.  We searched recently cancelled listings that met our criteria, called all those agents up, and won the house for our Buyer.

Note that five out of six cases above were houses that had been or would soon be on-market, and agent hustle made the difference.

The Off-Market: Useful in Rare Situations

In conclusion, there are situations where the off-market really is access to special inventory that won’t come to market ever.  More commonly, it is pre-market or “coming soon” inventory that good agents know before most people do.  Knowing about off-markets is what we do to add value to our Buyer clients.  For our Seller clients, we typically counsel that most of the time, we can get them better results with our prep and marketing… but it is their choice whether to accept pre-emptive offers before launch, or forego a full marketing plan in favor of discretion.  Ever situation is different.  Contact us to discuss your specific needs!